Technical Analysis of GOLD for November 20, 2024

From a technical perspective, Gold has reached a price level that warrants careful consideration for potential entry points. 

Let’s take a closer look at the 1-hour timeframe Gold chart before diving into the analysis:

Analysis Using Price Action (Trader’s Pressure)

In the current market trend, Gold is still in a Bullish/Uptrend condition. However, it’s crucial to anticipate a potential trend reversal if the price breaks through the support area or enters a consolidation phase.

By reviewing the candle history, there are clear opportunities to identify potential buy entries. To maintain objectivity, I’ll present an analysis for both buy and sell entry setups.

Observing the chart above, the dominance of buyers is evident as green candles (buyer pressure) consistently push the price upward, forming higher lows, with minimal opposition from red candles (seller pressure). This indicates that buyers are still the primary drivers of price formation.

Nevertheless, selling opportunities remain viable in Gold. The chart highlights the following:

• Resistance Area: 2666.11 – 2653.03
• Support Area: 2617.80 – 2604.72

Suggested Entry Setups

1. Breakout Opportunity Setup

• Buy Entry: If the 1-hour candle closes above the upper boundary of the Resistance Area (2666.11), prepare to find the best buy entry point.
• Sell Entry: If the 1-hour candle closes below the lower boundary of the Support Area (2604.72), prepare to find the best sell entry point.
• Stop Loss:
  • For buy entries, cut losses if the 1-hour candle closes below the lower boundary of the Resistance Area (<2653.03).
  • For sell entries, cut losses if the 1-hour candle closes above the upper boundary of the Support Area (>2617.80).
• Always maintain a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.

2. Pullback Opportunity Setup

For Sell Positions:

• Use the resistance area as the pullback zone. If the 1-hour candle closes within the resistance area, consider taking a sell position.
• Stop Loss: Exit if the 1-hour candle closes above the upper boundary of the pullback area (>2666.11).
• Apply a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.

For Buy Positions:

• Use the support area as the pullback zone. If the 1-hour candle closes within the support area, consider taking a buy position.
• Stop Loss: Exit if the 1-hour candle closes below the lower boundary of the pullback area (<2604.72).
• Apply a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.

Always implement sound money management practices to ensure healthy trading habits and remain vigilant against fake breakout candles.

I hope this analysis serves as a valuable reference for your market decisions.

Happy Trading, everyone!

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Gold Price Rises Again Due to Two Key Factors

 

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have experienced a significant rebound after six consecutive days of declines. As of Tuesday (November 19) at 6:20 AM WIB, the price of gold was recorded at around $2,611 - $2,612 per ounce. This increase was driven by two main factors: the weakening U.S. dollar and escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine.

Geopolitical Impact and U.S. Dollar Weakness

Geopolitical tensions have provided strong support for gold as a safe-haven asset. One of the major drivers has been the U.S. government's decision under President Joe Biden to authorize the use of long-range missiles in Ukraine to target Russian territories. This decision raises the risk of further escalation in the region, especially after North Korea deployed thousands of troops to support Russia, adding pressure to an already tense global situation.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar has weakened after reaching its highest level in a year. This decline can be attributed to fiscal and trade policies under President Donald Trump's administration, which are expected to trigger inflation. With the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) falling by 0.38%, gold, priced in dollars, has become more attractive to holders of other currencies.

Fed Policy and Interest Rate Outlook

Although there were expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, recent data shows a decrease in the probability of a 25 basis point cut, from 82% to 62%. The market is awaiting the release of key U.S. economic data this week, including housing data, initial jobless claims, and the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for November.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that there is no immediate need for a rate cut, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee emphasized that the central bank remains flexible in determining its future policy direction. In this environment, speculation about disagreements over the "neutral" interest rate could lead to a slower pace of rate cuts, a factor that investors are closely watching.

With increasing geopolitical tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar, the outlook for gold prices has become more appealing to investors seeking safer assets. However, the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates will continue to be an important factor influencing gold's movement in the near future.

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Technical Analysis of GOLD - November 18, 2024

From a technical perspective, Gold has entered a price range worth considering for potential entry points. 

Let’s analyze the 1-hour timeframe Gold chart below before diving deeper:

Using Price Action analysis (Trader Pressure), the current market trend suggests that Gold remains in a bullish/uptrend. However, we must anticipate possible trend reversals if the price breaches the support area or consolidates.

Observations:

In the historical candlestick patterns, there are opportunities for a buy entry. However, to remain objective, this analysis will present setups for both buy and sell entries.

Based on the chart:

• Buyer Pressure (green candle length) is gradually pushing prices higher, with sellers (red candle length) unable to counter effectively, resulting in the formation of higher lows.
• This indicates that buyers still dominate the price levels. However, sell opportunities may still arise.

Key Levels:

• Resistance Area: 2605.00 – 2590.20
• Support Area: 2547.80 – 2532.40

Suggested Entry Setups:

Breakout Opportunity:

1. Buy Setup:

   • If a 1-hour candle closes above the upper resistance level (2605.00), look for the best entry point for a buy position.

2. Sell Setup:

   • If a 1-hour candle closes below the lower support level (2532.40), prepare for a sell position.

3. Stop Loss:

   • For a buy entry, place a stop loss below the lower resistance boundary (<2590.20).
   • For a sell entry, place a stop loss above the upper support boundary (>2547.80).
   • Maintain a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.

Pullback Opportunity:

1. Sell Setup:

   • If the price closes within the pullback area around resistance, consider entering a sell position.
   • Place a stop loss above the upper pullback boundary (>2605.00).
   • Use a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.

2. Buy Setup:

   • If the price closes within the pullback area around support, consider entering a buy position.
   • Place a stop loss below the lower pullback boundary (<2532.40).
   • Use a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:1.

Always employ proper money management to sustain healthy trading and remain vigilant against fake breakout candles.

Hopefully, this analysis can serve as a helpful reference for your market strategies.

Happy trading, everyone!

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