Gold Weekly Rebound

Gold Set for First Weekly Gain in Three Weeks

Gold prices edged lower on Friday but remained on track to post their first weekly gain in three weeks, as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continued to support safe-haven demand despite growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.

As of 08:35 WIB, XAU/USD slipped 0.2% to $4,042.72 per ounce, while Gold Futures were little changed at $4,044.92. Silver (XAG/USD) declined 0.3% to $57.47 per ounce, while Platinum (XPT/USD) fell 0.5% to $1,589.67 per ounce.

Middle East Tensions Fuel Inflation Concerns Ahead of Fed Meeting

Gold was little changed after falling nearly 2% in the previous session but has still gained around 0.8% this week, putting the precious metal on track for its first weekly advance in three weeks.

Geopolitical risks intensified after Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Washington would hold Iran accountable for any future Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and threatened further military action against Tehran.

Market sentiment remained cautious after The New York Times reported that Iran rejected a U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal, dampening hopes for a near-term de-escalation despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.

The renewed geopolitical uncertainty also pushed crude oil prices higher, adding to inflation concerns. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected U.S. labor market data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a restrictive monetary policy. Initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 187,000, their lowest level in decades, driving the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to its highest level since January 2025.

Markets are now pricing in roughly a 34% probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at next week's Federal Reserve meeting, as resilient employment data and rising energy prices continue to strengthen the inflation outlook.

Analysts at Nomura expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged. They also believe Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is unlikely to provide meaningful forward guidance, as the July meeting will not include updated economic projections or a revised dot plot.

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Gold Eyes Fed

Gold Trades Near Two-Week High Ahead of Fed Meeting as Middle East Risks Offset Inflation Concerns

Gold prices hovered near a two-week high on Thursday after reaching their strongest level in the previous session, as investors balanced escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against concerns that rising oil prices could fuel inflation and keep the Federal Reserve on a restrictive monetary policy path.

As of 1:31 PM WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) slipped 0.1% to $4,127.99 per ounce, while Gold Futures declined 0.5% to $4,130.62. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) gained 0.3% to $59.88 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) advanced 0.8% to $1,658.28 per ounce. Gold continued to consolidate recent gains following a nearly 3% rally over the previous two trading sessions.

Middle East Conflict Keeps Inflation Risks in Focus

Geopolitical tensions remain a key driver of market sentiment as the United States and Iran show no signs of returning to negotiations. Meanwhile, attacks on oil tankers transiting the Red Sea were reported for the first time since the conflict began in late February.

The Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attacks, raising fresh concerns over one of the world's most critical shipping routes for Saudi Arabian crude oil exports. The renewed disruption has helped keep crude oil prices near multi-week highs, prompting investors to reassess inflation expectations ahead of next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Persistently high energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and strengthen the case for maintaining elevated interest rates. Higher borrowing costs generally reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.

Fed Rate Outlook Remains Uncertain

Market participants remain divided over whether the Federal Reserve will deliver another interest rate hike at next week's meeting. The lack of clear policy guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has added to uncertainty, leaving traders closely focused on incoming economic data and central bank signals.

Any indication that inflation remains persistent could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, while a more cautious tone from policymakers may provide additional support for gold prices.

Dip Buying Supports Gold Despite Higher Interest Rate Expectations

According to analysts at ANZ, investors continue rebuilding their gold positions despite expectations that interest rates may remain higher for longer. Recent price weakness has attracted bargain hunters rather than triggering widespread selling.

The bank noted that non-commercial net long positions have climbed to their highest level since January. In addition, renewed inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) suggest that investors are increasingly using gold as a hedge against elevated equity market valuations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

ANZ also highlighted that gold has demonstrated remarkable resilience even as rising energy prices point to a more restrictive monetary policy environment. Strong dip-buying demand has helped offset the downward pressure that higher inflation expectations and rising interest rates would typically place on precious metals.

Gold Holds Above Key $4,000 Support

Gold has remained firmly above the important psychological support level of $4,000 per ounce this week after suffering a sharp correction from its January record high. Traders are now watching whether bullish momentum can continue building toward the next major resistance level near $4,200 per ounce.

With geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting dominating market sentiment, gold is likely to remain highly sensitive to both economic data releases and developments in the Middle East. A breakout above the $4,200 resistance could reinforce bullish momentum, while a hawkish Fed stance may trigger renewed profit-taking in the precious metal.

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Gold Rally Continues

Gold Surges Above $4,130 as Middle East Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices extended their rally on Wednesday, climbing above $4,130 per ounce as escalating tensions in the Middle East fueled demand for safe-haven assets. The precious metal advanced despite a stronger U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields, while investors continued assessing how higher energy prices could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook.

As of 09:08 WIB, XAU/USD gained 1.3% to $4,132.79 per ounce, while Gold Futures rose 1.5% to $4,137.09. Meanwhile, XAG/USD advanced 1.5% to $59.71 per ounce, and XPT/USD climbed 2.3% to $1,666.59 per ounce.

Middle East Conflict Keeps Inflation Concerns in Focus

Gold continued its nearly 2% rally from the previous session as traders monitored growing threats to global energy supplies. Persistent geopolitical risks could keep inflation elevated, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path.

Market attention is also shifting toward next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting. While policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, investors anticipate a continued "higher for longer" stance if energy-driven inflationary pressures persist.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated that Washington remains open to negotiations with Iran, even as U.S. forces launched an eleventh consecutive night of military operations and Tehran continued its retaliatory attacks. Ongoing conflict around key global energy shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, remains a major concern for financial markets.

Oil prices held above $90 per barrel after extending July's rally, supported by continued military activity around the Persian Gulf and renewed concerns over regional supply disruptions.

Technical Outlook Turns More Bullish Above $4,120

According to Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, gold's ability to rally despite a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields suggests investors are rebuilding positions in the metal as a traditional safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

"Gold closed higher overnight, shrugging off the headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar and higher bond yields," Sycamore said. He added that cleaner retail positioning may also be helping restore gold's safe-haven appeal, even as U.S. equity markets continue to strengthen.

Sycamore noted that early signs of a price base have emerged around the late-June low of $3,942. A sustained breakout above the descending trendline resistance near $4,120, followed by a move above the early-July high of $4,202, would strengthen the case for a broader recovery toward the 200-day moving average near $4,494.

He added that IG remains cautiously bullish on gold as long as prices stay above the late-June low, which continues to serve as a critical technical support level.

Silver and Platinum Extend Gains

Silver also extended its rally after surging more than 4% in the previous session, while platinum posted strong gains as investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East alongside expectations for the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision.

Overall, safe-haven demand remains the primary driver of precious metals, with geopolitical uncertainty, elevated oil prices, and inflation expectations likely to dictate gold's near-term direction.

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