Gold Rally Continues

Gold Surges Above $4,650 Amid Rising U.S. Fiscal Concerns

Gold prices extended their rally on Monday, climbing above $4,650 per ounce and strengthening their position at a three-month high as concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook and Treasury efforts to lower long-term borrowing costs continued to boost demand for the precious metal.

As of 2:42 PM WIB, XAU/USD gained 1% to $4,650.63 per ounce, while Gold Futures advanced 0.6% to $4,706.89. Silver (XAG/USD) edged up 0.2% to $69.15 per ounce, while platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.6% to $1,892.51. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 98.88.

U.S. Treasury Intervention Revives Dollar-Bearish Trade

Gold continued its strong upward momentum after posting gains of more than 5% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly advance. The precious metal traded above $4,620 per ounce on Monday, building on Friday’s 1.9% gain and remaining near its highest level in three months.

The latest rally is closely linked to the U.S. Treasury’s unexpected decision to expand purchases of long-dated government bonds. The move pushed Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, reviving investment strategies that favor hard assets such as gold when confidence in the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies weakens.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later suggested that the government could further expand its bond buyback program and indicated that additional fiscal initiatives aimed at addressing elevated government borrowing costs would be announced soon.

Beyond lower yields, the Treasury’s intervention has sparked broader concerns about whether policymakers are becoming increasingly willing to manage borrowing costs directly rather than allowing the bond market to determine them freely.

Analysts at ANZ noted that the Treasury’s actions have intensified concerns about the U.S. fiscal position. According to the bank, gold’s move above $4,500 reflects expectations that policymakers will continue efforts to keep long-term yields under control, while sustained pressure on the U.S. dollar encourages investors to increase exposure to bullion.

These concerns have become even more pronounced after U.S. government debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time, while the dollar fell to its lowest level in more than three months.

Gold Demand Strengthens as Debt Concerns Rise

Investor appetite for gold continues to expand as the Treasury-driven rally gains momentum. According to ANZ analysts, gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded their largest daily inflow since September 2025 and extended a streak of net inflows to five consecutive weeks.

Technical indicators also remain supportive. Gold has moved above its 200-day moving average near $4,513, a level widely monitored by traders as a signal that the long-term trend has turned more bullish. The next major technical target is seen around $4,700 per ounce if momentum remains intact.

At the same time, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support demand for safe-haven assets and stores of value.

Gold has now moved well beyond the $4,000-per-ounce level that previously served as a key support zone during earlier corrections. Continued central bank purchases and rising ETF demand have further reinforced the metal’s recovery, highlighting its appeal as investors seek protection against fiscal risks, currency weakness, and market uncertainty.

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Antam Gold Surges

Antam Gold Jumps 3% as UBS Raises Long-Term Gold Price Target to $5,400

Indonesia’s Antam gold prices surged sharply on Thursday (August 20, 2026), climbing Rp80,000, or around 3%, to Rp2,725,000 per gram from Rp2,645,000 per gram a day earlier. The rally marks the strongest daily increase in recent sessions, following a Rp50,000 decline recorded on Wednesday.

Global Gold Rally Lifts Antam Prices

The sharp rise in Antam gold prices mirrors the strong performance of global gold markets, where bullion prices gained nearly 3% amid continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index. The depreciation of the U.S. currency boosted demand for gold as investors sought safe-haven assets and inflation hedges.

Antam’s buyback price also increased by Rp80,000, reaching Rp2,585,000 per gram. Despite the latest surge, Antam gold remains approximately 14% below its all-time high of Rp3,168,000 per gram, recorded on January 29, 2026.

On a year-to-date basis, however, the precious metal continues to deliver solid gains. Antam gold has risen roughly 9.5% since the beginning of the year, when prices stood at Rp2,488,000 per gram, highlighting sustained investor interest in gold amid global economic uncertainty.

UBS Sees Gold Reaching $5,400 per Ounce

In the international market, Swiss banking giant UBS has raised its long-term forecast for gold prices, projecting XAU/USD to reach $5,400 per ounce by September 2027. The bank cited expectations of further disinflation and a less restrictive U.S. monetary policy environment as key drivers behind the bullish outlook.

According to UBS, easing inflationary pressures could encourage the Federal Reserve to maintain a more accommodative stance, while broader U.S. dollar weakness is expected to provide additional support for gold prices over the coming years.

Despite the upgraded long-term target, UBS maintained its end-2026 gold price forecast at $4,600 per ounce, signaling confidence that the precious metal will remain supported by macroeconomic and monetary policy trends.

Fed Rate Outlook Remains Key Catalyst

Gold prices have recently advanced as investors reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. Softer U.S. labor market data has strengthened expectations that policymakers may keep rates unchanged if inflation continues to remain under control.

Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators and Fed commentary for clues about the future path of monetary policy. Lower interest rates typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making the metal more attractive to investors.

With central bank policy, inflation trends, and currency movements continuing to shape market sentiment, gold remains one of the most closely watched assets in global financial markets.

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UBS Targets $5,400

UBS Raises Gold Price Target to $5,400

UBS has extended its gold price forecast by one quarter, setting a new target of $5,400 per ounce for the end of September 2027. The bank expects further upside for gold, supported by declining real interest rates, sustained investment demand, and a weaker US dollar.

The new forecast assumes that disinflation in 2027 will allow the US Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. UBS strategists also expect broad-based weakness in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the bank has maintained its end-2026 gold price target at $4,600 per ounce.

Gold prices have risen in recent sessions as investors reassess the outlook for US monetary policy and the direction of the dollar. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s near-term interest-rate path, combined with weaker US labor market data, has strengthened expectations that the Fed could keep interest rates unchanged if inflation remains under control.

Investment demand for gold has also improved. Gold ETF inflows have resumed, initially led by China and more recently by Europe, while central bank purchases remain strong. According to the World Gold Council, central banks recorded net gold purchases of 51 metric tons in June. The People’s Bank of China added another 20 metric tons to its reserves in July, marking its largest monthly increase since October 2023.

Three Key Drivers for Higher Gold Prices

UBS strategists identified three conditions that could allow the gold rally to continue: a sustained decline in the US dollar, lower expected US real interest rates, and stronger investor demand.

The bank’s base case assumes that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged in September, although UBS highlighted uncertainty over the possibility of additional rate increases later this year.

On the demand side, UBS estimates that approximately 500 metric tons of investment demand per quarter could be required for gold to trade sustainably at or above the $5,000-per-ounce level.

Gold Outlook for 2027

The higher long-term forecast reflects UBS’s view that disinflation could become a more prominent theme in 2027. Favorable base effects and expectations that US economic activity will remain at or below trend could put additional pressure on the dollar and provide further support for gold prices.

With this outlook in mind and options volatility remaining above 20%, UBS strategists favor volatility-selling strategies, including selling downside gold price risk to generate additional returns.

UBS also sees potential buying opportunities if gold prices experience a correction. The bank said that a decline toward $4,000 per ounce could offer an opportunity to increase gold exposure.

Key Risk to the Gold Forecast

The main risk to UBS’s bullish gold outlook is another Federal Reserve rate hike this year. Higher interest rates could push real yields higher, strengthen the US dollar, and weaken investment demand for gold.

Under this bearish scenario, UBS estimates that gold prices could decline and potentially test the $3,850-per-ounce level.

Overall, UBS remains bullish on gold over the longer term, with its $5,400 target for September 2027 signaling confidence that lower real yields, weaker dollar conditions, and sustained investment demand could continue to support the precious metal.

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