Gold Holds Near $4,500 After Rally as Traders Await Key U.S. Jobs Data
Gold prices remained near the $4,500-per-ounce mark on Friday after surging 2% in the previous session, as traders awaited the latest U.S. payrolls report for fresh clues on whether the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month.
A weaker U.S. dollar and comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller helped support bullion prices. Waller indicated he could back a pause in rate hikes if inflation continues to ease, while investors now look ahead to Friday’s employment data and next week’s inflation figures for further policy guidance.
As of 09:18 WIB, XAU/USD was up 0.3% at $4,484.27 per ounce, while Gold Futures traded near $4,530. Silver (XAG/USD) hovered around $65.8 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) traded close to $1,775. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index slipped to around 99.4.
Waller Cools Fed Rate Hike Expectations as Inflation Eases
Gold rebounded nearly 2% on Thursday, snapping a three-session losing streak and extending gains into Friday. The rally gained momentum after Waller stated that he could support keeping rates unchanged at the Federal Reserve’s September 15–16 meeting if incoming data confirms that inflation continues to cool.
Waller emphasized that August inflation data will play a crucial role in shaping his decision. While he remains open to further rate increases should price pressures reaccelerate, he noted that recent data finally show meaningful signs of disinflation.
Following his remarks, markets sharply reduced expectations for a September rate hike. The probability of an increase has fallen to roughly 50%, compared with about 70% earlier this week.
Lower interest rates generally benefit gold because the precious metal does not generate yield, reducing the opportunity cost of holding bullion when borrowing costs decline.
The U.S. dollar also weakened after the Japanese yen surged nearly 2% on Thursday, marking its strongest performance since coordinated intervention by Japanese and U.S. authorities roughly a month ago. The move has kept traders alert to the possibility of further action from Tokyo.
A softer dollar makes gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies, providing additional support for prices.
Payrolls, Inflation Data, and Technical Levels in Focus
Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is now the next major test for the interest-rate outlook and could significantly influence gold’s short-term direction.
The latest rebound follows a sharp selloff earlier in the week, when gold dropped to around $4,282 per ounce, its lowest level in nearly four weeks, before staging a strong recovery.
Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, said gold’s recent advance has been supported by easing pressure from energy prices, Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar. Signs that the latest escalation in the Middle East may have peaked have also helped improve overall market sentiment.
According to Sycamore, gold remains above its late-June low of $3,942 per ounce, reinforcing his medium-term view that the metal has established a solid base around that level.
Although a break below the 200-day moving average near $4,526 last week caused some short-term technical damage, he believes the broader bullish outlook remains intact.
Gold also remains highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East. Earlier conflict-driven spikes in oil prices reignited inflation concerns and weighed on market sentiment. However, the recent moderation in energy prices has helped reduce those inflationary pressures, providing a more favorable backdrop for precious metals.
