Gold Near $4600

Gold Price Slides Toward $4,600 as Middle East Uncertainty Weighs on Market Sentiment

Gold prices remain under bearish pressure, slipping toward the $4,600 level on Tuesday and marking a fresh three-week low. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the second round of US–Iran peace negotiations has supported the US Dollar, drawing in buyers and putting additional pressure on the precious metal. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less hawkish stance could help limit further downside for non-yielding gold ahead of key central bank events.

From a technical perspective, gold recently failed to sustain gains above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A decisive break below the $4,655 support zone would reinforce the bearish outlook. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 41, slightly below the midpoint, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with its signal line above the MACD line. These indicators suggest that downside momentum persists, though not yet at an aggressive pace.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,723. A sustained move above this level would be needed to ease selling pressure and open the door for a stronger recovery. Traders are also likely to watch for the formation of a new base or bullish signals from RSI and MACD before confirming a more durable bottom.

Geopolitical tensions continue to influence gold market dynamics. Hopes for diplomatic progress in resolving the Iran conflict have faded after US President Donald Trump canceled engagements involving key envoys. Iran has reportedly submitted a revised proposal to the US, excluding discussions of its nuclear program until the conflict ends and disputes over Gulf shipments are resolved. However, the proposal has been met with dissatisfaction, particularly due to its limited focus on nuclear issues. The ongoing stalemate, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, continues to support the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, weighing on gold prices.

That said, gains in the US Dollar may be capped by shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in roughly a 35% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. This could discourage aggressive bullish bets on the dollar and help stabilize gold prices ahead of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC meeting starting Tuesday.

Investors will closely monitor the post-meeting press conference, particularly comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, for clues on future monetary policy direction. In addition, any new developments in the Middle East crisis will remain a key driver of both USD strength and gold price movements.

Overall, the current fundamental backdrop appears to favor bearish sentiment in XAU/USD, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown from the short-term trading range that has persisted since the beginning of the month.

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Gold Prices Fall

Gold Prices Slip Monday Morning as US–Iran Talks Collapse

Gold prices declined in early Monday trading (April 27, 2026), pressured by geopolitical tensions after the cancellation of renewed peace talks between the United States and Iran.

As of 07:37 WIB, June 2026 gold futures on the Commodity Exchange fell 0.99% to $4,693.90 per troy ounce, down from $4,740.90 per troy ounce at last week’s close.

The drop comes as efforts to resume diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran stalled, while energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted—raising concerns across global markets.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned visit by his top envoy to Islamabad, which was intended to revive peace discussions with Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian officials stated they would not engage in negotiations under ongoing threats.

The continued disruption in energy supply due to the conflict has heightened inflation risks. This scenario increases the likelihood that central banks will maintain higher interest rates for longer—or even tighten further—creating headwinds for gold prices.

Since the conflict escalated in late February, gold has dropped approximately 11%, reflecting shifting market sentiment.

“Gold is currently in a technical gray area,” said Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP SA. She added that ongoing uncertainty over ceasefire developments has made gold behave more like a risk asset.

“With gold now showing a negative correlation to oil and a loose positive correlation to equities—while not serving as a reliable indicator for either—investors are reluctant to chase prices below the $5,000 level,” Shiels noted.

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Gold Rebound Outlook

 

Gold Prices Fall: Rebound Signals and Outlook Through End of 2026

Gold prices remain volatile in the short term, but the potential for a rebound is still intact as global monetary policy expectations begin to shift.

According to Trading Economics data on Friday (April 24, 2026, at 10:50 WIB), spot gold prices declined by 3.3% over the past week, falling to around $4,675 per troy ounce.

Commodity analyst and Traderindo.com founder Wahyu Laksono stated that gold is currently entering a recovery phase after experiencing a correction in mid-March 2026. From a short-term technical perspective (weekly timeframe), gold is showing early rebound signals with a tendency to test key resistance levels.

The nearest resistance is seen in the range of $4,900 to $5,300 per troy ounce, while support levels are located between $4,500 and $4,100.

“Technically, gold is in a recovery phase following a healthy correction in mid-March,” Wahyu said on Thursday (April 23, 2026).

Gold Price Outlook for Q2 2026

Heading into the second quarter of 2026, gold is المتوقع to move in a consolidative rebound pattern. Several external factors are expected to drive price movements, including easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising concerns over a global economic slowdown.

In addition, market participants are closely watching the direction of U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Wahyu noted that the central bank’s ability to maintain tight monetary policy is becoming increasingly limited, opening the door for potential easing in the near future.

For the April–June 2026 period, gold is projected to trade with resistance between $5,400 and $5,600, while support is expected in the range of $3,880 to $3,000.

Bullish Potential in the Second Half of 2026

Looking further ahead, gold is expected to turn more bullish in the second half of 2026. This outlook is driven by anticipated shifts in global monetary policy, particularly from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to begin cutting interest rates.

Lower interest rates typically act as a positive catalyst for gold, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

At the same time, risks of a global economic slowdown—triggered by persistent inflation and rising oil prices—could further support gold demand. Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty also adds to gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Moreover, continued gold purchases by central banks, especially China, are expected to provide strong long-term support for prices.

For the second half of 2026, gold is projected to test resistance levels between $5,000 and $6,000, with support seen in the range of $4,000 to $3,000.

Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term Opportunity

Despite the positive long-term outlook, short-term downside risks remain, particularly in Q2 2026. Wahyu emphasized that gold may still experience further weakness or form a bottom before resuming its upward trend.

“The potential for further downside remains in Q2, or at least a bottoming phase in the second half, which could serve as a launchpad for gold to reach new record highs,” he concluded.

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