Gold Above $4,000

Gold Surges Above $4,000 as Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Outlook Boost Safe-Haven Demand

Gold prices edged higher on Monday, reclaiming the key psychological level of $4,000 per troy ounce as investors closely monitored rapidly evolving developments in the Middle East while assessing whether rising energy prices could complicate the Federal Reserve's inflation outlook.

As of 09:43 WIB (02:43 GMT), XAU/USD climbed 0.4% to $4,024.72 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.5% to $4,029.87. Meanwhile, XAG/USD (Silver) advanced 0.9% to $56.93 per troy ounce, whereas XPT/USD (Platinum) slipped 0.2% to $1,594.30.

Middle East Geopolitical Risks Keep Energy Markets on Edge

Gold remained firmly above the $4,000 mark after ending the previous session down 0.2%, as investors balanced renewed geopolitical risks against concerns that higher oil prices could fuel inflation and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for a longer period.

Oil prices traded little changed after posting gains over the previous two sessions, despite fresh U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and President Donald Trump's warning that Tehran "will pay" following the deaths of three U.S. soldiers in recent days.

Adding to regional uncertainty, the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen threatened to impose a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia, prompting the Saudi-led military coalition to strengthen security measures for shipping routes through the Red Sea.

At the same time, markets found some relief after Iran indicated that international mediators were discussing proposals to ease the conflict. Reuters also reported plans for a 10-day ceasefire, helping to ease fears of an immediate escalation in the region.

Now entering its fifth month, the conflict continues to push energy and commodity prices higher, forcing investors to weigh the inflationary impact of rising oil prices against recent signs of slowing economic activity in the United States.

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Gold Holds Steady

Gold Price Holds Steady as Investors Weigh Fed Outlook and Rising US-Iran Tensions

Gold prices traded little changed on Monday as investors balanced escalating tensions between the United States and Iran against expectations that higher oil prices could reinforce the Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping interest rates elevated for longer.

As of 09:17 GMT, spot gold (XAU/USD) edged up 0.1% to $4,020.63 per troy ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.8% to $4,030.20. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) climbed 1.8% to $56.97 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) rose 0.2% to $1,598.45 per ounce.

Middle East Tensions Revive Inflation Concerns

Gold remained under pressure after falling more than 2% last week, as investors assessed whether renewed conflict in the Middle East could keep inflationary pressures elevated despite recent signs of easing price growth in the United States.

Brent crude oil surged above $90 per barrel after the United States and Iran intensified military operations over the weekend. The latest escalation included attacks on key oil facilities in Kuwait and strikes targeting vessels attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, raising fresh concerns over global energy supplies.

Tehran declared that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran had effectively collapsed, increasing the risk of prolonged disruptions along one of the world's most critical oil shipping routes.

Now entering its fifth month, the conflict has pushed energy and industrial commodity prices higher, while uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's strategy toward Iran has kept investors focused on the broader economic implications.

Federal Reserve Policy Remains in Focus

Recent U.S. inflation and labor market data suggest a softer economic backdrop, but investors remain cautious over whether rising energy costs could complicate the Federal Reserve's battle against inflation.

Higher oil prices have revived concerns that inflation may remain above the Fed's target, potentially forcing policymakers to maintain restrictive monetary policy for an extended period. Elevated interest rates typically support U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.

Analysts at ANZ noted that last week's escalation in the Middle East briefly pushed market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July 29 meeting to as high as 40%, before easing back to around 10%. The sharp shift highlighted how closely gold prices continue to track changes in interest rate expectations.

The bank added that the hurdle for another Fed rate hike remains high and continues to expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged this year. According to ANZ, the Fed is likely to look through higher energy prices unless they trigger broader second- and third-round inflation effects across the economy.

ANZ also expects gold to find strong support within the $3,800–$4,000 per ounce range as expectations for additional monetary tightening gradually fade.

Gold Price Outlook

Gold has traded within a relatively narrow range around the key psychological $4,000 level in recent weeks after plunging 14% during the second quarter—its weakest quarterly performance since 2013. The decline underscores how expectations for tighter U.S. monetary policy continue to outweigh traditional safe-haven demand, even amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Keywords: Gold Price, XAU/USD, Federal Reserve, Fed Interest Rates, US-Iran Tensions, Inflation, Brent Crude Oil, Gold Price Forecast, Safe-Haven Assets, Precious Metals.

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Gold Trims Losses

Gold Price Trims Weekly Losses as Bargain Hunting Offsets Middle East Inflation Fears

Gold prices posted modest gains on Friday as bargain hunters stepped in following the previous session's sharp selloff. However, the precious metal remained on course for its biggest weekly decline since early June, as escalating US-Iran tensions continued to fuel inflation concerns and support the US dollar.

At 15:12 WIB, spot gold (XAU/USD) rose 0.47% to $3,995.35 per ounce, while Gold Futures gained 0.18% to $3,999.22. Meanwhile, silver (XAG/USD) slipped 0.18% to $55.43 per ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) dropped 2% to $1,589.57.

Gold Heads for Biggest Weekly Drop Since Early June

Despite Friday's recovery, gold remained down around 3% for the week, marking its steepest weekly decline since early June as investors continued to favor the US dollar and other interest-bearing assets.

The latest wave of selling followed another US strike on Iranian targets on Thursday, just one day after an attack severely damaged an oil tanker near one of Iran's major export terminals. The renewed hostilities have extended the Middle East conflict into its fifth month, keeping crude oil prices elevated and reviving concerns that higher energy costs could reignite global inflation.

Rising oil prices complicate the Federal Reserve's policy outlook by increasing the risk that inflation remains above the central bank's target. As a result, interest rates may stay higher for longer, supporting US Treasury yields and the greenback while reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

Although US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data released this week indicated easing underlying inflation pressures, markets largely looked past the backward-looking figures amid growing concerns that surging energy prices could reverse the recent disinflation trend.

Federal Reserve Officials Maintain a Hawkish Tone

Federal Reserve policymakers continued to emphasize that inflation risks remain elevated despite recent signs of moderating price pressures.

Tony Sycamore, Senior Market Analyst at IG, said the lack of a meaningful rebound in gold following weaker-than-expected US CPI and PPI data earlier this week was "not a particularly encouraging sign" for the metal's near-term outlook.

According to Sycamore, Thursday's decline has placed renewed pressure on the view that gold established a base near its late-June low of $3,942.

He added that a decisive break below that support could expose the October 2025 low around $3,886, while a recovery above the descending trendline resistance near $4,140 would significantly improve the technical outlook.

"For now, gold remains in a vulnerable position, facing pressure from a stronger US dollar and continued risk-off market flows," Sycamore said.

Gold has traded around the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce for several weeks as Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Kevin Warsh, Governor Christopher Waller, and New York Fed President John Williams, reiterated that inflation remains too high to justify monetary policy easing.

Fed officials continue to stress that inflation is still above the central bank's 2% target, signaling they require sustained evidence of cooling price pressures before considering any interest rate cuts. This cautious stance has kept investors focused on developments that could reignite inflation, particularly persistently high energy prices.

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