Gold Prices Steady

Gold Holds Steady, Set for Weekly Gain After Weak US Jobs Data

Gold prices remained steady on Friday and were on track for their first weekly gain in five weeks after weaker-than-expected US employment data eased concerns over further interest rate hikes, boosting demand for the precious metal.

Bullion is poised to record its first weekly advance in over a month after plunging to an eight-month low earlier this week. The rebound followed disappointing US labor market figures, which strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious approach to monetary policy.

Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $4,128.74 per ounce as of 02:55 GMT, while US gold futures climbed 0.4% to $4,142.25 per ounce. Spot gold has gained approximately 0.9% for the week, marking its strongest weekly performance since early June.

Trading activity remained subdued ahead of the US market holiday on Friday.

Weak US Nonfarm Payrolls Boost Gold Prices

Gold prices rallied sharply on Thursday after the June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report came in below market expectations, signaling a slowdown in the labor market.

The weaker employment data reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later this year. A resilient labor market has been one of the key conditions supporting tighter monetary policy, and the latest figures suggest the US economy may be losing momentum.

The report provided much-needed relief for gold after persistent concerns over higher interest rates weighed heavily on bullion throughout the second quarter.

Gold Recovers After Sharp Second-Quarter Decline

Despite this week's rebound, gold suffered significant losses during the second quarter. Bullion declined roughly 13% during the June quarter, erasing all of its year-to-date gains as investors priced in the possibility of prolonged higher interest rates.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from its nearly 13-month high following Thursday's employment data, providing additional support for precious metals.

Spot silver rose 0.15% to $61.0580 per ounce, while spot platinum gained 0.2% to $1,627.92 per ounce.

Fed Rate Outlook Remains Key for Gold Market

Precious metals experienced substantial losses throughout the second quarter as investors grew increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy again this year.

Federal Reserve policymakers maintained a hawkish stance during their June policy meeting. Additionally, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated this week that the central bank remains committed to achieving its 2% annual inflation target, reinforcing expectations that inflation control continues to be the Fed's primary objective.

Investors will continue to monitor upcoming US economic data and Federal Reserve commentary for further clues on the future path of interest rates, which remains one of the most important drivers of gold prices.

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Gold Price Rebounds

 

Gold Price Rebounds Toward $4,100 Ahead of Key US Jobs Report

Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their recovery toward the $4,100 level during Thursday's European session as the US Dollar remained under selling pressure ahead of the release of the closely watched US June employment report.

The weaker greenback provided additional support for bullion, while investors turned their attention to the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, a key indicator that could influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate decision.

Gold Technical Outlook Remains Cautiously Bullish

From a technical perspective, gold's overnight short-covering rally stalled near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent two-week decline. Moreover, XAU/USD continues to trade below its 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that the broader short-term trend remains slightly bearish.

However, momentum indicators are showing signs of improvement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned positive above the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding near 54, indicating strengthening buying momentum.

As long as gold remains above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, the recovery could continue, although upside potential may remain limited within the prevailing market structure.

Key Gold Price Levels to Watch

Immediate resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,112.32, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,145.47 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4,164.62.

Additional upside targets include:

• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement: $4,216.91

• 78.6% Fibonacci retracement: $4,291.37

• Recent cycle high: $4,386.20

On the downside, initial support stands at the reclaimed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $4,047.62. A decisive break below this level could expose the recent swing low around $3,943.03.

Weak US Economic Data Weighs on the Dollar

On Wednesday, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported that US private-sector employment increased by 98,000 jobs in June, falling short of both the previous reading of 122,000 and economists' expectations of 113,000.

Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI eased to 53.3 in June from 54.0 previously. The Prices Paid Index dropped sharply to 73.0 from 82.1, while the Employment Index improved slightly to 49.7 from 48.6 in May.

In addition, declining crude oil prices have significantly eased near-term inflation concerns, reducing demand for the US Dollar and providing further support for gold prices.

Fed Rate Expectations Continue to Support the US Dollar

Despite weaker economic indicators, markets continue to expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a relatively hawkish stance.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign roughly a 64% probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September and nearly an 85% chance of higher borrowing costs by year-end.

Those expectations were reinforced by Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who reiterated on Wednesday that the central bank remains committed to its 2% inflation target and signaled that monetary policy would not be eased prematurely despite political calls for lower interest rates.

Several Fed officials have also indicated that additional policy tightening may still be necessary to bring inflation back under control. This outlook could limit further downside in the US Dollar while capping gains in non-yielding assets such as gold.

Geopolitical Risks Keep Gold in Focus

Geopolitical uncertainty also remains a key market driver.

Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran concluded in Qatar without any significant progress toward a lasting peace agreement, leaving tensions surrounding the strategically important Strait of Hormuz unresolved.

Meanwhile, Russia launched another missile and drone attack on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, early Thursday, maintaining demand for safe-haven assets.

Investors now await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later in the North American session. The employment data is expected to play a crucial role in shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations, influencing the US Dollar, and determining the near-term direction of gold prices.

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Gold Hits Low

Gold Falls to Eight-Month Low, Posts Sharp June Loss as Rate Hike Fears Intensify

Gold prices dropped to their lowest level in eight months on Tuesday, heading for a fourth consecutive monthly decline as persistent inflation concerns and expectations of higher U.S. interest rates continued to weigh on the precious metal.

Spot gold fell 1.3% to $3,965.51 per ounce as of 08:47 WIB, while gold futures declined 1.5% to $3,975.92 per ounce. Spot prices reached their weakest level since early November.

For June, spot gold has plunged 12.8%, marking its worst monthly performance since 2008.

The decline was driven by a stronger U.S. dollar and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once more this year. Market expectations strengthened after the central bank adopted a more hawkish tone during its June policy meeting, with several policymakers signaling support for additional rate hikes.

Rising energy prices, combined with supply disruptions linked to the rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI), have fueled concerns that inflation could remain stubbornly high throughout the year. As a result, investors increasingly expect the Fed to maintain tighter monetary policy.

Although energy prices eased in recent weeks following the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, uncertainty surrounding the Middle East remains elevated after renewed military tensions over the weekend.

Inflation concerns related to AI intensified after Apple Inc. increased prices on several of its devices last week due to higher semiconductor costs. The move followed similar price increases by other electronics manufacturers as the booming AI industry continues to absorb a significant share of the global chip supply.

Persistent inflation expectations have reinforced forecasts for higher interest rates, putting additional pressure on gold and other non-yielding assets. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion, making it less attractive compared to interest-bearing investments.

Silver and Platinum Also Post Heavy Monthly Losses

Other precious metals also extended their declines on Tuesday, ending June with substantial losses.

Spot silver fell 2.0% to $57.1090 per ounce, bringing its monthly decline to 24.2%. Meanwhile, spot platinum slipped 1.3% to $1,563.25 per ounce, finishing the month down nearly 19%.

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