Gold Prices Drop

 

Global Gold Prices Fall as Surging Oil Prices Raise Inflation Concerns

Global gold prices declined on Monday (March 16, 2026) as rising oil prices fueled concerns that inflation could accelerate, prompting major central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to around US$4,983.17 per ounce at 16:44 WIB. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for April delivery dropped 1.5% to US$4,987.30 per troy ounce.

According to Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah, the gold market’s focus has shifted from the immediate impact of trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to the broader risk of long-term inflation.

He noted that surging oil prices could intensify inflationary pressures, potentially influencing central bank policies—particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve. If central banks delay or halt plans to cut interest rates, it could weaken the appeal of gold, which does not offer yield.

Oil prices have remained above US$100 per barrel, rising more than 40% this month and reaching their highest level since 2022. The surge followed military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, prompting Tehran to halt oil shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump urged allied nations to help secure the Strait of Hormuz after Iranian forces continued attacks along the key shipping route amid a conflict that has now entered its third week.

This week, several major central banks are scheduled to hold policy meetings, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Investors are closely watching how policymakers assess the impact of the Iran conflict on inflation, economic growth, and future monetary policy.

Analysts at UBS expect central banks to remain cautious about inflation risks without immediately resorting to aggressive interest rate hikes.

In other precious metals markets, spot silver fell 2.6% to US$78.46 per troy ounce. Platinum remained relatively stable at around US$2,024.85 per ounce, while palladium slipped 0.5% to US$1,542.92 per ounce.

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Gold Awaits PCE

 

Gold Struggles to Extend Gains as Traders Await Key US PCE Inflation Data

Gold prices managed to hold on to modest intraday gains during the Asian trading session, although follow-through buying remained limited. Escalating tensions in the Middle East helped the safe-haven asset attract buyers near the lower end of the two-week trading range, allowing the metal to recover part of the losses recorded over the previous two sessions.

In his first public statement, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that all US military bases in the region must be closed immediately or they could become targets of attack. The remarks added to geopolitical uncertainty and supported demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

Technically, gold once again rebounded from the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. This support level continues to preserve the broader bullish trend structure despite the recent pullback, signaling caution for sellers in the XAU/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below its signal line and under the zero level. However, the latest contraction in negative readings suggests that bearish momentum is fading rather than accelerating. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently near 44, remains below the neutral 50 level but has recovered from oversold territory, indicating a corrective phase within a broader bullish bias rather than a completed market top.

Immediate support is seen around $5,090, where the latest intraday low aligns just above the 200-period EMA near $5,039, forming a key demand zone. A break below this area could expose deeper support toward the $5,000 psychological level.

On the upside, initial resistance appears near the recent swing high around $5,160. A sustained breakout above this level could pave the way toward $5,200, followed by the late-stage peak near $5,230.

A recovery above the $5,160–$5,200 range would likely pull the MACD back toward the zero line and push the RSI closer to 50, strengthening the bullish bias. Conversely, failure to hold the $5,090–$5,039 support cluster could shift the short-term outlook on the 4-hour chart toward a more neutral or even bearish tone.

Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Outlook Influence Gold Market

Geopolitical tensions remain a key driver for gold. Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reiterated that attacks on US military bases in the region could continue, even as Iran claims to maintain goodwill with neighboring countries.

At the same time, US President Donald Trump stated that stopping what he called Iran’s “evil empire” is more important than oil prices. Since the beginning of the US-Israel conflict involving Iran, crude oil prices have continued to climb.

Adding to market concerns, fears of supply disruptions from a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz have raised the risk of rising global inflation. This development has prompted investors to rapidly reduce expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026.

As a result, US Treasury yields remain elevated, supporting demand for the US Dollar (USD) and limiting gains for non-yielding assets such as gold ahead of the upcoming US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release.

The PCE inflation report is expected to play a crucial role in shaping market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, particularly as concerns grow that the ongoing conflict could trigger higher consumer prices.

This dynamic could significantly influence USD demand and provide further direction for gold prices. Nevertheless, geopolitical developments remain the primary focus for investors.

Despite the recent rebound, the XAU/USD pair appears on track to record its second consecutive weekly loss. Mixed fundamental factors suggest traders should remain cautious before placing aggressive directional bets, even as the broader trend still leaves room for potential upside in gold prices.

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Retail Investment Surge

 

Retail Investment Surge: Gold and Stocks Lead Growth

Bareksa recorded a sharp increase in retail investor activity despite ongoing global economic uncertainty triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions. Although investors have become more selective, interest in investment products remains strong.

This trend is reflected in the steady growth of retail investment value on the Bareksa platform through the end of February 2026. Notably, the most significant gains came from gold and stock transactions, which surged 331% and 271% year-on-year, respectively.

Bareksa Officer Ni Putu Kurniasari explained that the rising public interest in digital gold investment is supported by clear regulations in Indonesia from both the Commodity Futures Trading Regulatory Agency (Bappebti) and the Financial Services Authority (OJK).

Digital gold transactions are also considered more efficient because they offer a low minimum investment value, making them accessible to more retail investors.

“On Bareksa, for example, gold investment can start from as little as Rp50,000, making it an affordable solution for retail investors,” Ni Putu said during the Bareksa media gathering event in Jakarta on Wednesday (March 11, 2026).

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s stock market has recently come under public scrutiny. Concerns have emerged over transparency in share ownership data and information asymmetry, which can disadvantage retail investors.

Market attention has also been drawn to the influence of large capital players (big players) and allegations of stock price manipulation, including insider trading practices by certain market participants.

In response, Bareksa supports ongoing capital market reforms in Indonesia initiated by regulators, stakeholders, and market participants to improve transparency and fairness.

“Bareksa supports the capital market regulator’s efforts to eliminate practices that disadvantage retail investors in order to maintain the integrity of Indonesia’s capital market in the eyes of investors,” said Karaniya Dharmasaputra, CEO and Co-Founder of Bareksa.

Looking ahead, Bareksa believes that the trend of investment diversification will continue to grow as public awareness increases about the importance of balanced portfolio management.

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