Gold Holds Steady

Gold Prices Hold Steady as Markets Focus on Iran Deal and Central Bank Meetings

Gold prices remained largely unchanged during Asian trading on Tuesday as investors awaited further details on the U.S.-Iran peace agreement while shifting their attention to a busy week of major central bank meetings, led by the Federal Reserve.

Spot gold edged up 0.3% to $4,321.43 as of 13:59 WIB, holding near a one-week high after Monday’s strong rally. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures slipped 0.2% to $4,343.07.

Bullion surged more than 2% on Monday after Washington and Tehran announced a preliminary agreement aimed at ending their conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The development eased inflation concerns and weighed on the U.S. dollar, providing support for precious metals.

The proposed peace framework, expected to be formally signed later this week, triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and boosted risk sentiment across global financial markets.

Brent crude fell to a three-month low on Monday, while global equities advanced on expectations that lower energy costs could help ease inflationary pressures.

However, investors remain cautious and are awaiting additional details regarding the implementation timeline of the agreement, as both nations acknowledged that a permanent ceasefire still requires further negotiations.

Market attention is now turning to a series of key central bank policy decisions scheduled for this week.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised its short-term policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.0%, marking its highest level in 31 years. The widely anticipated move is part of the BOJ’s gradual effort to normalize monetary policy and contain inflation.

XAU/USD Outlook

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, following three consecutive rate hikes.

Traders are now closely watching upcoming policy announcements from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England later this week. Particular attention will be given to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh for clues regarding the future path of U.S. interest rates.

Higher borrowing costs typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the metal. Recent U.S. inflation data and persistent concerns over price pressures have prompted investors to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts this year.

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.1% on Tuesday after touching a 10-day low in the previous session.

Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.3% to $69.76 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.2% to $1,776.60 per ounce.

In the base metals market, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange declined 0.6% to $13,677.33 per metric ton, while U.S. copper futures dropped 0.7% to $6.45 per pound.

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Gold Jumps Higher

Gold Surges 2% as US-Iran Peace Deal Eases Inflation Concerns

Gold prices surged more than 2% during Asian trading on Monday after the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary peace framework aimed at ending the Middle East conflict. The development triggered a sharp decline in oil prices and eased market concerns over inflationary pressures and prolonged higher interest rates.

Spot gold climbed 2.3% to $4,317.32 per ounce as of 08:48 WIB, while August Gold Futures advanced 2.4% to $4,338.75 per ounce.

The rally extended gold’s recovery from last week’s multi-month low near $4,000 per ounce, as investors reassessed the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy.

On Sunday, officials from both the United States and Iran announced that they had reached a peace framework designed to halt hostilities, end the U.S. blockade on Iran, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a critical route for global oil shipments.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated that the agreement is expected to be formally signed in Switzerland on Friday.

The announcement sparked a sharp sell-off in crude oil markets. Brent crude fell more than 4% to around $84 per barrel as traders priced in the return of Gulf oil supplies and reduced risks of supply disruptions.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies, with the U.S. Dollar Index slipping 0.2%.

Although gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, it faced pressure throughout much of the conflict. Rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and led investors to anticipate higher interest rates for a longer period.

Those expectations boosted both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold.

However, market expectations for further U.S. monetary tightening eased significantly following the peace announcement.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see a 49% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, down from 69% just one week earlier.

Investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting scheduled for June 16–17, where policymakers are widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged while providing updated economic projections.

Elsewhere, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 1% this week, while the Bank of England is broadly anticipated to maintain its current monetary policy stance.

Among other precious metals, silver gained 3.3% to $70.24 per ounce, while platinum advanced 3.2% to $1,776.60 per ounce.

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Gold Extends Losses

Gold Heads for Second Weekly Loss as Fed Rate Hike Concerns Weigh on Market

Gold prices declined on Friday and remained on track for a second consecutive weekly loss, pressured by persistent inflation concerns and growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise interest rates again. However, renewed hopes for a potential U.S.-Iran peace agreement helped limit further downside.

Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,182.44 per ounce as of 09:18 WIB and was set to record a weekly decline of more than 3%. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 2.2% to $4,203.87, supported by improving sentiment surrounding peace prospects in the Middle East.

The precious metal had dropped to a six-month low on Thursday before rebounding sharply and ending the session 3.5% higher. The recovery followed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested that Washington and Tehran could reach a peace agreement as early as this weekend. Such a deal could potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease concerns over global energy supplies.

Despite the optimism, Iranian officials stated that no final agreement has been reached, leaving uncertainty over the region's outlook unresolved.

Broader market sentiment improved on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough. Oil prices fell sharply after Trump's remarks, while global equity markets rallied as investors welcomed the possibility of reduced geopolitical tensions.

Gold, traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, has faced pressure in recent weeks as investors increasingly focus on the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold, making interest-bearing investments more attractive.

XAU/USD Outlook

Fresh U.S. economic data released on Thursday reinforced concerns that inflationary pressures remain elevated. Producer prices increased more than expected in May, recording the strongest annual rise in three and a half years as higher energy costs continued to filter through the broader economy.

The stronger inflation data prompted traders to increase bets that the Federal Reserve may resume monetary tightening later this year. Market pricing currently indicates roughly a 60% probability of a rate hike in December.

The U.S. Dollar Index traded largely unchanged during Asian trading hours after slipping 0.1% in volatile trading on Thursday.

Among other precious metals, spot silver declined 0.8% to $66.80 per ounce, while platinum gained 0.5% to $1,731.08 per ounce.

In industrial metals, benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange climbed 1.6% to $13,706.33 per ton, while U.S. copper futures edged up 0.2% to $6.41 per pound.

Key Market Drivers

• Persistent inflation concerns in the United States.

• Rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

• Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.

• Improved risk sentiment across global financial markets.

• Fluctuations in energy prices and commodity demand.

Investors will continue monitoring inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy signals, and geopolitical developments, all of which are expected to play a crucial role in determining the next direction for gold prices and the broader commodities market.

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