Gold Outlook Stalled

 

Gold Outlook Remains Capped, Silver More Aggressive but Riskier

Gold prices are expected to stay range-bound in the short to medium term as the strong US dollar and persistent global uncertainty continue to weigh on the market.

According to Trading Economics data on Wednesday (April 29), gold prices fell 0.46% to US$4,575 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver slipped 0.21% to US$72.88 per troy ounce.

This decline extends the previous bearish trend, where gold dropped around 2% and silver plunged 3%, hitting their lowest levels since late March 2026.

Brahmantya Himawan, an analyst at PT Finex Bisnis Solusi Futures, said the pressure on gold is likely to persist as long as global inflation remains elevated and the US Federal Reserve has yet to signal monetary easing.

“As long as oil prices remain high due to geopolitical tensions and global energy distribution is still disrupted, inflationary pressure could persist. This may keep the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates,” he said.

These conditions are expected to support a stronger US dollar, ultimately limiting gold’s upside as a safe-haven asset.

On the other hand, silver is projected to show higher volatility compared to gold. In addition to safe-haven demand, silver also has strong industrial demand components. “If the global economy improves, silver could see more aggressive upside than gold, but with higher risk,” he added.

For May 2026, gold is projected to trade within the range of US$4,400 to US$4,500 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, silver is expected to move between US$66 and US$71 per troy ounce.

Both commodities are likely to remain in a sideways trend with high volatility, as investors await clearer signals on US interest rate policy and global geopolitical developments.

From a strategy perspective, investors are advised to remain selective. For medium- to long-term investors, the current price correction presents an opportunity for gradual accumulation, particularly in gold as a hedge.

However, in the short term, investors should wait for clearer market direction following the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, given the ongoing high volatility.

He concluded that gold is currently at a crossroads between geopolitical risks and the strength of the US dollar.

“As long as the Fed maintains a hawkish stance and oil prices stay elevated, a sustained gold rally is unlikely to be smooth.”

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Gold Near $4600

Gold Price Slides Toward $4,600 as Middle East Uncertainty Weighs on Market Sentiment

Gold prices remain under bearish pressure, slipping toward the $4,600 level on Tuesday and marking a fresh three-week low. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding the second round of US–Iran peace negotiations has supported the US Dollar, drawing in buyers and putting additional pressure on the precious metal. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve may adopt a less hawkish stance could help limit further downside for non-yielding gold ahead of key central bank events.

From a technical perspective, gold recently failed to sustain gains above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. A decisive break below the $4,655 support zone would reinforce the bearish outlook. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 41, slightly below the midpoint, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with its signal line above the MACD line. These indicators suggest that downside momentum persists, though not yet at an aggressive pace.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,723. A sustained move above this level would be needed to ease selling pressure and open the door for a stronger recovery. Traders are also likely to watch for the formation of a new base or bullish signals from RSI and MACD before confirming a more durable bottom.

Geopolitical tensions continue to influence gold market dynamics. Hopes for diplomatic progress in resolving the Iran conflict have faded after US President Donald Trump canceled engagements involving key envoys. Iran has reportedly submitted a revised proposal to the US, excluding discussions of its nuclear program until the conflict ends and disputes over Gulf shipments are resolved. However, the proposal has been met with dissatisfaction, particularly due to its limited focus on nuclear issues. The ongoing stalemate, including tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, continues to support the US Dollar’s safe-haven appeal, weighing on gold prices.

That said, gains in the US Dollar may be capped by shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in roughly a 35% chance of a rate cut by the end of the year. This could discourage aggressive bullish bets on the dollar and help stabilize gold prices ahead of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC meeting starting Tuesday.

Investors will closely monitor the post-meeting press conference, particularly comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, for clues on future monetary policy direction. In addition, any new developments in the Middle East crisis will remain a key driver of both USD strength and gold price movements.

Overall, the current fundamental backdrop appears to favor bearish sentiment in XAU/USD, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown from the short-term trading range that has persisted since the beginning of the month.

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Gold Prices Fall

Gold Prices Slip Monday Morning as US–Iran Talks Collapse

Gold prices declined in early Monday trading (April 27, 2026), pressured by geopolitical tensions after the cancellation of renewed peace talks between the United States and Iran.

As of 07:37 WIB, June 2026 gold futures on the Commodity Exchange fell 0.99% to $4,693.90 per troy ounce, down from $4,740.90 per troy ounce at last week’s close.

The drop comes as efforts to resume diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran stalled, while energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted—raising concerns across global markets.

According to Bloomberg, U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned visit by his top envoy to Islamabad, which was intended to revive peace discussions with Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian officials stated they would not engage in negotiations under ongoing threats.

The continued disruption in energy supply due to the conflict has heightened inflation risks. This scenario increases the likelihood that central banks will maintain higher interest rates for longer—or even tighten further—creating headwinds for gold prices.

Since the conflict escalated in late February, gold has dropped approximately 11%, reflecting shifting market sentiment.

“Gold is currently in a technical gray area,” said Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Strategy at MKS PAMP SA. She added that ongoing uncertainty over ceasefire developments has made gold behave more like a risk asset.

“With gold now showing a negative correlation to oil and a loose positive correlation to equities—while not serving as a reliable indicator for either—investors are reluctant to chase prices below the $5,000 level,” Shiels noted.

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