Gold Extends Losses

Gold Prices Fall on Wednesday Morning as Broad Market Sell-Off Intensifies

Gold prices extended their losses during Wednesday's trading session as a widespread sell-off across global financial markets weighed on investor sentiment.

According to Bloomberg data, as of 07:43 WIB, August 2026 gold futures on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) fell 0.83% to $4,115.10 per troy ounce, down from the previous session's close of $4,149.40 per ounce.

The decline in gold prices was largely driven by heavy selling pressure across financial markets, particularly in the technology sector.

Technology Stock Sell-Off Weighs on Gold

Gold moved closer to the monthly lows reached earlier this month as technology stocks led a broader downturn in global equity markets.

The weakness in the technology sector added further pressure to precious metals, with investors increasingly concerned that persistent inflation risks could prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.

Higher interest rates generally reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal.

Federal Reserve Policy Remains a Key Driver

“Federal Reserve rate adjustments, combined with resilient US macroeconomic data, have played a major role in driving the recent decline in gold prices,” said Michael Hsueh, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, in a research note.

Strong economic indicators have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer than previously anticipated, supporting the US dollar and putting additional pressure on bullion prices.

Deutsche Bank Cuts Gold Price Forecast

Reflecting the changing market outlook, Deutsche Bank has revised its gold price forecast lower for the third quarter of 2026.

The bank now expects gold to average $4,300 per troy ounce during Q3 2026, down from its previous projection of $4,800 per ounce.

The downgrade highlights growing concerns that tighter monetary conditions and stronger economic data could continue to limit upside momentum in the gold market over the coming months.

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Gold Prices Slip

Gold Prices Edge Lower on Tuesday Morning as US-Iran Peace Talks Show Progress

Gold prices slipped slightly in early trading on Tuesday (June 23, 2026), reflecting improving market sentiment after the United States and Iran signaled initial progress in negotiations aimed at ending the ongoing conflict.

According to Bloomberg data, as of 07:39 WIB, gold futures for August 2026 delivery on the Commodity Exchange traded at US$4,200.40 per troy ounce, down 0.05% from the previous session's closing price of US$4,202.70 per troy ounce.

Despite the modest decline, gold prices remained relatively stable as investors closely monitored developments in diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran. Reduced geopolitical tensions typically lessen demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

US Vice President JD Vance stated that weekend discussions with Iranian officials were "very, very good," while Iranian representatives also reported encouraging progress in the negotiations.

In addition, the United States issued a 60-day license allowing Iran to sell a portion of its oil on international markets, a move widely viewed as a positive step toward easing tensions between the two countries.

"Gold and silver markets remain heavily influenced by external factors and are still reluctant to move decisively in either direction," said Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis for EMEA and Asia at StoneX Group Inc.

She added that the technical outlook remains weak for both precious metals, although some market flows indicate signs of improvement.

Investors are expected to continue monitoring geopolitical developments, central bank policy signals, and global economic conditions, all of which could influence the direction of gold prices in the coming sessions.

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Gold Faces Pressure

Gold Prices Lack Strong Bullish Conviction Near $4,200 as Fed Rate Hike Bets and Iran Risks Support US Dollar

Gold prices maintained a modest bid tone near the $4,200 level during the first half of the European session, appearing to snap a three-day losing streak after touching their lowest level in more than a week on the previous day.

The precious metal found some support as crude oil prices reversed lower after mediators from Qatar and Pakistan announced an official 60-day roadmap aimed at securing a final peace agreement between the United States and Iran.

XAU/USD Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, last week's failed attempt to break above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has now turned into a key resistance level, continues to favor bearish traders. The subsequent decline reinforces downside pressure on the XAU/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the upper-30 range, signaling limited buying momentum. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in negative territory with slightly negative histogram readings, suggesting that bearish momentum is easing but has yet to reverse.

The 200-day EMA near $4,334 now serves as the first major resistance level that bulls must reclaim to reduce the current bearish pressure. Until gold secures a daily close above this level, any recovery is likely to be viewed as a corrective rebound within a broader consolidation phase.

Momentum indicators continue to suggest that further downside tests cannot be ruled out in the near term.

Fundamental Overview

Market participants are currently pricing in nearly a 90% probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year.

These expectations strengthened after the Fed's hawkish projections last week indicated policymakers may need to tighten monetary policy further if inflation remains stubbornly elevated.

Adding to the outlook, newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the importance of price stability during his post-meeting press conference, signaling that the central bank may be reluctant to cut interest rates even if economic growth slows.

At the same time, geopolitical developments over the weekend provided additional support for the US Dollar, limiting the upside potential for gold.

Iran accused the United States and Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement and announced the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz, citing continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump threatened additional military action against Iran if Hezbollah continues attacks against Israel.

These developments highlight the fragile nature of the diplomatic process and keep geopolitical risk premiums elevated across global markets.

Meanwhile, Russia has intensified attacks on major Ukrainian cities in recent weeks, helping the safe-haven US Dollar hold near its strongest levels since May 2025. This has further capped gains in gold prices and warrants caution among bullish traders.

Market Outlook

Looking ahead, investor attention will remain focused on developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations, which are likely to continue driving volatility across global financial markets.

Comments from influential Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members will also be closely monitored for additional clues regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path, potentially influencing demand for the US Dollar and precious metals.

However, the prevailing fundamental backdrop suggests that any recovery attempts in gold may continue to attract selling interest and could struggle to gain sustained momentum.

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